Orange County Global Warming Committee

WATER

Oceans

Introduction
Ocean Acidification May Contribute to Global Shellfish Decline – 26 Oct 2009
Genome of Microbe Silently Shaping Ecology of Ocean Dead Zones – 23 Oct 2009
Killer Algae – 20 Oct 2009
Ocean Dead Zones Likely to Expand – 18 Apr 2009

Sea Level Rise

Could Rising Seas Swallow California's Coast? – 11 Mar 2009
California Must Brace for Climate Change – 15 Mar 2009

Watersheds

Millions at Risk as Deltas Sink – 20 Sep 2009

Article from Science Daily 16 October 2009

Data Supports Rapid Ice Loss: Open Arctic Seas in Summer Within 10 Years

There is new evidence that ice covering the Arctic Ocean is thinning. According to Catlin Arctic Survey and World Wildlife Fund, it is likely that the Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in the summer within 10 years.
The sea ice survey was completed during winter and spring of 2009. Measurements were made by manual drilling and visual observations over 450-kilometers of the northern Beaufort Sea. The data indicated that the ice in this area was almost exclusively first-year ice. Traditionally the ice in this region has been thicker and multi-layered due to accumulation from year to year. The current measurements showed an average ice floe thickness of 1.8 meters, which is so thin that it is likely to be lost completely during next summer’s ice melt.
The Polar Ocean Physics Group (University of Cambridge) was responsible for analyzing the data. The team was led by Peter Wadhams, who is a leading expert on North Pole sea ice cover. Wadhams believes that the entire Arctic Ocean will be free of ice during the summer within about 20 years.
Martin Sommerkorn (WWF International Arctic Programme) says that if we lose the Arctic sea ice, we will be left with a dramatically warmer world. “Such a loss of Arctic sea ice cover has recently been assessed to set in motion powerful climate feedbacks which will have an impact far beyond the Arctic itself – self perpetuating cycles, amplifying and accelerating the consequences of global warming. This could lead to flooding affecting one-quarter of the world’s population, substantial increases in greenhouse gas emissions from massive carbon pools and extreme global weather changes." He is calling for developed countries to agree at Copenhagen this December to reduce their carbon emissions by 40% by 2020.
Some of the amplifying effects of Arctic sea ice loss include greater release of vast stores of methane currently locked in the frozen Arctic soils and methane hydrates in the frozen sea floor. The amount of carbon stored in permafrost soils is twice that found in the atmosphere, and the amount of carbon stored as methane hydrates is greater than in all of Earth’s proven stores of fossil fuels. As the ice covering the Arctic Ocean disappears, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will accelerate, which in turn will result in greater sea level rise. An ice-free Arctic Ocean will change the weather patterns of northern hemisphere, affecting many ecosystems.
Link: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/10/091015203837.htm

Article from Science Daily 24 September 2009

Lasers From Space Show Thinning of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Data from NASA satellite lasers have provided a comprehensive picture of the rapid thinning of coastline glaciers in Greenland and the Antarctic. The data is expected to improve the accuracy of predictions of future sea level rise. This study was conducted by researchers from the British Antarctic Survey and the University of Bristol, and was published in the journal Nature.
The results show a profound loss of ice due to an increase in the speed of ice flow into the sea. This “dynamic thinning” of glaciers involves areas of the ice sheets that can be hundreds of kilometers inland as well as loss of ice at the edges due to ocean-driven ice melt. Thinning is now occurring all over Greenland, and it has intensified on some Antarctic coastlines. The collapse of ice shelves has triggered particularly rapid thinning.
Ice thinning is most likely the result of warm ocean currents melting the glacier front on the coastline. However, this mechanism of ice loss is not well understood, and thus its potential contribution to sea level rise is unpredictable.
In a comparison of rates of change in elevation of both fast-flowing and slow-flowing ice in Greenland, it was found that 81 out of 111 fast-moving glaciers were thinning twice as rapidly as slow-flowing ice at the same altitude. Ice loss from many glaciers was greater than the rate of replenishment by snowfall further inland.
Link: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/09/090923143331.htm
Reference: Hamish et al, Extensive dynamic thinning on the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Nature, 2009; 10:1038.

Article from Reuters 14 September 2009 by David Fogarty

Atmospheric CO2 Predicts Antarctic Ice Cap Melting

A study of rock samples in Africa has revealed a correlation between decreased carbon dioxide levels and the formation of ice sheets in Antarctic 34 million years ago. This is the first evidence for the validity of predictions made by computer climate models that ice sheets are created when CO2 levels fall, and they melt when CO2 levels rise. Researchers from Texas A&M, Bristol, and Cardiff Universities, extracted samples of tiny 34 million-year-old fossils in Tanzania to provide proxy data for CO2 levels in the atmosphere during that time. The results of this study were published in the online journal Nature
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels mysteriously fell during the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition about 34 million years ago. Since there are no samples of air from that age, proxy CO2 levels from a type of well-preserved microfossil in Tanzania were used. Changing levels of atmospheric CO2 cause changes in ocean acidity, which can be detected by a chemical analysis of microscopic plankton shells of organisms that were living at the surface of the ocean. These proxy CO2 levels dipped around the time ice sheets in Antarctica started to form. Prior to that, CO2 levels were twice that of current levels, around 750 parts per million.
These results suggest that ice cap melting starts around 900 ppm, a level that could be reached by the end of the century if nothing is done to stop carbon emissions.
Link: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090914/sc_nm/us_climate_antarctica_co2

Summarized from an Associated Press article by Karl Ritter 10 September 2009

Greenland's Melt Mystery Unfolds, at Glacial Pace

Alarm bells were raised when the flow of the Helheim Glacier off the southreastern coast of Greenland nearly doubled its speed in just a few years from 2005. However, this speed was not sustained. Helheim’s advance since 2005 has been regularly measured using GPS receivers by glaciologist Gordon Hamilton (University of Maine). Hamilton is interested in the question of sea level rise due to global warming.
The Greenland ice sheet is as much as 2 miles thick and is nearly as extensive in area as Mexico. It has been losing approximately 7 billion cubic feet of ice every year. Snow falling on top of the ice sheet does not replace losses to surface melting and ice calving into the ocean. When land ice melts, it displaces water in the ocean and contributes to sea level rise.
Because this phenomenon of land ice melting was poorly understand when the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change published their estimate of future sea level rise, the contributions of Greeland ice melting were not included in the estimates.
The underlying causes of Greenland ice sheet melting are still poorly understood. A likley explanation is that the Greenland's ice sheet is melting because of ocean warming. Meltwater from the top of the glacier seeps down through cracks to its base, where it can lubricate the bedrock. Warm ocean currents from southern latitudes pulse up to the glacial fiords of Greenland. Scientists have found warm water currents reaching the edge of Greenland's biggest glacier, Sermeq Kujalleq. Fiamma Stranneo (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts), also found warm currents in the depths of Sermilik fjord, where Helheim Glacier ends.
The oceans around the Earth were warmer in July of 2009 than in almost all of the 130 years of record-keeping. Factors that likely contribute include an El Nino system, carbon emissions, and perhaps some random weather. There is a sense of urgency in the scientific community about global warming because of the shrinking Polar sea ice, permafrost thawing in the Arctic, and runaway glaciers in Greenland.
Even partial melting of the ice sheet could raise sea levels substantially, with catastrophic consequences for low-lying populated areas. Although the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report predicts a 20 to 60 centimeter sea level rise by 2100, that projection does not take into account the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet.
Hamilton’s latest measurement of the flow of the Helheim glacier was 6.5 miles/year, somewhat lower than the rate in 2005, but still 50% faster than its historic rate. Other glaciers in Greenland have slowed to similar degrees, but are still melting fast enough to give a net loss of ice. If global warming continues, sudden spurts of ice melting may become more frequent, until the glaciers eventually collapse.
Link: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090911/ap_on_sc/climate_09_greenland_s_melt

Satellites and Submarines Give the Skinny on Sea Ice Thickness

Measurements of ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean by satellite started in 1973. In 2003, NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) took over the job, and allowed estimates of ice thickness as well. Ron Kowk (NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.), Drew Rothrock (Universityof Washington, Seattle) and a team of scientists combined data on Arctic ice thickness from satellite records and from the records compiled on submarines used during the Cold War for a total period of about 50 years. The results show that there was a peak in ice thickness in 1980, followed by an astonishing 53% decline.
Ice that is floating in the Arctic Ocean affects local climate and ecosystems as well as global climate. Its white surface reflects sunlight; and as it melts and its surface area decreases, more solar rays are absorbed by the ocean and land. The consequence is that surface temperatures increase and more ice melt occurs in a positive feedback cycle.
Every year, Arctic ice undergoes seasonal changes. It melts during the warmth of the summer and freezes during the winter. The extent of melting and freezing is affected by a number of factors, including storminess to variations in atmospheric circulation over the region.
Data on arctic sea ice has become increasingly comprehensive. In the US, ice record data is compiled by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (University of Colorado, Boulder). Most of that data describes the area of ice. What is needed is a vertical measurement of thickness. The ICESat's Geoscience Laser Altimeter System is now being used to provide that data, which is measured as an estimate of the height of sea ice above the surface of the ocean. This also helps provide an estimate of the depth of ice below the surface based on a measurement of the density of the ice. A map of ice thickness over the Arctic basin was produced by Kwok and his team in 2008. In a recent report they present evidence that the 'permanent' ice in the Arctic Ocean has thinned by at least 40% since 2004, and that thin seasonal ice has surpassed thick older ice as the dominant type.
Kwok’s team compared the last 5 years of data from ICESat with the longer history of sonar measurements of ice thickness observed by U.S. Navy submarines from 1958 to 2000 covering up to 40% of the Artic Ocean. Based on the combined record, the average Arctic ice thickness was 3.64 meters in1980 and 1.89 meters at the end of 2007.
According to Tom Wagner, cryosphere program manager at NASA, “"A fantastic change is happening on Earth — it's truly one of the biggest changes in environmental conditions on Earth since the end of the ice age. It's not an easy thing to observe, let alone predict, what might happen next."
Link: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/09/090901143321.htm

New NASA Satellite Survey Reveals Dramatic Arctic Sea Ice Thinning

Between the winters of 2004 and 2008, the Arctic sea ice thinned dramatically and thin first-season ice became the dominant type over multi-layered older ice for the first time on record. The new satellite data provide additional evidence for the continuing transformation of the Arctic with climate change.
Data from NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) were used to create the first basin-wide calculation of the thickness and volume of the ice cover over the Arctic Ocean. The team was led by Ron Kwok (NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif), which published the results in July.
ICESat measurements revealed that overall Arctic sea ice thinned about 7 inches a year over 4 winters, for a total of 2.2 feet. In addition, the thicker, multi-year ice thinned by 42 percent. For the first time ever, data was obtained for both thickness and volume changes of ice cover over the entire Arctic Ocean.
The Arctic ice cap grows and recedes seasonally. It expands during the winter, when there is much less sun exposure; and melts during the summer as wind and ocean currents causes the ice to break off and flow out of the Arctic and greater exposure to sun causes much of it to melt in place. The thicker, older ice tended to survive the summer melt, which then thickens again with winter snow. New ice thickens the ice cover by about 2 meters (6 feet) in a typical winter, covering a multi-year ice base that averages 3 meters (9 feet) in thickness.
Recently, the amount of new ice laid down in winter has not offset losses from summer ice melt. Consequently, there is less ice to reflect the sunlight. The greater expanse of open ocean absorbs more heat, which causes further loss of ice by melting. Between 2004 and 2008, multi-year ice cover shrank by 595,000 square miles, an area approximately the size of Alaska. The proportion of Arctic ice that was older, multi-year ice shrank from 62 percent in 2003 to 32 percent in 2008.
Corroborating evidence was provided by measurements conducted by US Navy submarines, which found similar changes in thickness and volume of Arctic Ocean sea ice.
Journal reference: Kwok R et al. Thinning and volume loss of the Arctic Ocean sea ice cover: 2003–2008. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2009; 114:C07005 DOI: 10.1029/2009JC005312
Link: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/10/091015203837.htm

Oceans Articles

Introduction
Acidification: As atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase, more CO2 gas is taken up by the oceans, which become more acidic. As CO2 dissolves in seawater it produces carbonic acid, which is rapidly converted into carbonate and bicarbonate ions. With increased acidity, the balance between the amount of carbonate and bicarbonate shifts toward bicarbonate formation. The result is there is less carbonate for shellfish to use to grow their shells. And, at even lower pH (greater acidity), shells may begin to dissolve.
Dead zones: Increasing ocean temperatures combined with run-off of pollutants and nutrients from land causes algal blooms that deplete the oxygen in seawater and create ocean dead zones. These oxygen-deficient zones (OMZs) are expanding along the coasts throughout the world. The loss of oxygen kills most of the sea life and affects the carbon sequestration processes of the oceans.
Marine animals and plants in deeper strata of the oceans are particularly threatened because they depend on churning of water from the surface to the depths for replenishment of oxygen. As oceans warm the surface stabilizes, reducing delivery of oxygen-rich waters to deeper strata.

Article from Science Daily 26 October 2009

Ocean Acidification May Contribute to Global Shellfish Decline

Even small increases in ocean acidity have detrimental effects on bay scallops, hard clams, and Eastern oysters. Researchers at Stony Brook University's School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, led by Chris Gobler have shown that the larval stages of many shellfish are highly sensitive to increased levels of carbon dioxide dissolved in sea water.
Three species of shellfish considered commercially and ecologically valuable were examined to determine how their growth and survivorship of larvae are affected by different degrees of acidification. When CO2 concentrations were raised to levels estimated to occur later this century, there was a slowing of growth and a greater than 50% decline in survival and of clam and scallop larvae. Oysters were also affected, but to a lesser degree. Slowing of larval growth may increase their risk of loss by predation.
Link: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/10/091026162546.htm

Article from Science Daily 23 October 2009

Genome of Microbe Silently Shaping Ecology of Ocean Dead Zones

SUP05 is one of the most abundant microbial organisms in ocean dead zones. Although this organism has yet to be cultivated in a laboratory, researchers from the University of British Columbia and the US Department of Energy Joint Genome Institute (DOE JGI) have identified a large portion of its DNA sequence. The study was conducted in a fjord off Vancouver Island in British Columbia, Canada, where a seasonal cycle of stratification and deep water renewal creates a "living lab" for the study of microbes that can grow under low oxygen conditions. Genetic material of microbes from this region was obtained from environmental samples taken a different stages of column stratification. SUP05 was the most abundant organism found by Steven Hallam and his team, and there was sufficient DNA sequenced to assemble a continuous stretch of metagenome, which is essentially a composite of the entire SUP05 population sampled.
According to Hallam, SUP05 is paradoxical in that it provides beneficial ecosystem services while also producing byproducts that contribute to climate change. SUP05 fixes carbon dioxide and removes toxic sulfides from the ocean, but it also appears to be producing nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas.
SUP05 is related to sulfer-consuming organisms that live on the gills of sea clams and mussels, although these symbionts metabolism nitrate rather than oxygen. The habitat range of SUP05 is expected to expand with climate change, and may help to offset increasing carbon dioxide levels.
Link: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/10/091022141121.htm

Article from Science Daily 20 October 2009

Killer Algae

Toxic algae is found just about anywhere there is water, but normally these microscopic plants are not very abundant. However, sudden warming of ocean water or runoff of sediment and nutrients from land can trigger a bloom of algae capable of killing sea life and sometimes even humans by releasing an array of chemicals that can trigger anything from mild skin irritations to potent neurotoxic effects.
James Castle and John Rodgers of Clemson University have proposed that sometime similar happened to cause major extinction events. By analyzing the paleogeologic record corresponding in time to mass die-offs, they found a spike in the presence of fossil algae mats called stomatolites.
If this theory is correct, it raises concerns for what may happen in a warmer world. As global temperatures rise, the range of toxic algae moves slowly northward and increases in abundance in ponds, lakes, and ocean, as well as sources of drinking water.
Journal reference: Castle et al. Hypothesis for the role of toxin-producing algae in Phanerozoic mass extinctions based on evidence from the geologic record and modern environments. Environmental Geosciences, 2009: 16 (1): 1 DOI: 10.1306/eg.08110808003.
Link: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/10/091019134716.htm

Article from Science Daily 18 April 2009

Ocean Dead Zones Likely to Expand

According to researchers from the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI), ocean dead zones may expand substantially over the next century. These predictions from Peter Brewer and Edward Peltzer are based on the fact that sea life will require more oxygen to survive as dissolved carbon dioxide increases. They find that marine animals become more susceptible to low oxygen concentrations under conditions of higher carbon dioxide because the partial pressure of dissolved carbon dioxide (pCO2) rises under conditions of low oxygen concentrations. High concentrations of carbon dioxide actually make it harder for marine animals to obtain oxygen from seawater.
Brewer and Peltzer describe a "respiration index,” based on the ratio of oxygen and carbon dioxide gas in seawater. As the respiration index decreases, it becomes harder it is for marine life to breathe. Analyzing changes in the respiration index will provide scientists with another tool to study dead zones.
It has been assumed that the effects of increasing carbon dioxide would be more damaging at the surface of the ocean. However, when the respiration index is calculated for different depths of ocean depths, the scientists found that the most severe effects occur in "oxygen minimum zones," that are approximately 300 to 1,000 meters deep.
Other studies have predicted that oxygen minimum zones will expand with climate change. The results of Brewer and Peltzer suggest that the effects will be more severe than expected.
Journal reference: PGBrewer, ET Peltzer. Limits to marine life. Science, 2009; 324 (5925): 347-348 DOI: 10.1126/science.1170756.
Link: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090417161506.htm

Sea Level Rise Articles

San Francisco Chronicle editorial 15 March 2009

California Must Brace for Climate Change

The sea level report produced by Pacific Institute, an Oakland think tank, was the first of 40 reports commissioned by the state to be issued on the effects of global warming in California. The studies are intended to guide policymakers and inform residents for what they might expect to have to adapt to within the next century. Sea levels have been rising slowly over the century. Measurement at the Golden Gate show that it has risen approximately 8 inches.
According to international climate-change scientists who met in Denmark last week, global warming is occurring more rapidly than previously predicted. Sea level rise is now expected to be twice as great as predicted just two years ago. A Gallup poll conducted recently found that a majority of Americans believe that global warming is occurring, but more people than ever (41 percent) believed that scientists have been exaggerating its seriousness.
These doubters are in for wrenching change. If they continue to shrug it off, they will probably have to face harder choices later. Public support is crucial for preparing residents, and government has been actively working to control carbon emissions, but sea level rise is a whole new challenge that few are preparing for at this point.
The costs of the heavy infrastructure that would be needed to protect the coast will require financing. Construction of new buildings in the prime flood zones should be curtailed by government planners. If building is to occur, developers should be required to construct additional protective structures. New emergency evacuation and rescue plans will be required as levels gradually rise. Protection of surviving edges of wetlands that nurse fish and birds will be crucial as they are swamped by rising seas.
The toll of global warming on the ocean is already measurable, and California must prepare for the worst by considering the best advice it can find. Planning, decision making, and flood control are required. If this state rises to the occasion, perhaps the rest of the nation and the world will follow.
Link http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/03/14/EDHQ16CJAU.DTL

Article in Time CNN 11 March 2009 by Bryan Walsh

Could Rising Seas Swallow California's Coast?

According to the Pacific Institute, an environmental NGO, global warming may result in a sea level rise of 4.6 feet by 2100. They estimate that approximately increased flooding could affect 480,000 Californians and cause $100 billion worth of property damage along the coast.
This report's estimates of seas level rise are much greater than those of previous studies. The data are based on research conducted by the Scripps Institute of Oceanography. The estimate is considerably higher than the 18-59 cm rise the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) 2007 report estimated would occur by 2100. But the IPCC estimate was based only on thermal expansion of the seas, and not on the effect of meltwater from ice caps in Antarctica and Greenland. Greenland by itself could contribute 20 feet of sea level rise if its ice cap was to melt completely.
Reevaluation of ice cap melting revealed a disturbing trend. At the Climate Change Congress in Copenhagen this week, scientists presented estimates of sea level rise in the range of 3.3 feet by 2100, although there will be differences around the world. Even if carbon emissions were controlled, it is likely that levels will rise at least 1.5 feet. These revised estimates are based on new data related to ice cap melting from land-based glaciers, Greenland, and Antarctica. As many as 600 million people around the world may be affected by increased flooding.
The Pacific Institute report presented details of what these levels of sea level rise will mean for California’s coastal infrastructure in the even of a “100-year flood.” A 100-year flood is a disaster with a 1% chance of happening every year, or a 26% chance of occurring over the span of a 30-year mortgage. The most vulnerable areas of the state are in the Bay Area, including large areas of San Francisco and Oakland.
If Californians decide to protect these areas with dunes and walls, it would need approximately 1,100 miles of improved coastal defenses to protect against a 4.6-foot sea level rise. The cost of this could be $14 billion to build and $1.4 billion a year to maintain, with no guarantee that it would work. There might have to be a phased abandonment of certain areas that are particularly prone to flooding.
Link: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1884618,00.html

Watershed Articles

Article BBC News 20 Sep 2009 by Richard Black

'Millions at risk as deltas sink

A recent study of sea level rise and land subsidence in river deltas revealed that 24 out of 33 of the world's major river deltas are sinking, increasing the risk of flooding and displacement of hundreds of millions of people who live in these areas.
A study led by James Syvitski of the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado compiled data from historical measurements of sea level rise and satellite images collected from space mission projects, which included the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission carried out from the space shuttle Endeavour in 2000, and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (Modis) carried out on 2 NASA satellites. The results were published in Nature Geoscience (20 September 2009).
Delta sinking is the result of human activities; including oil, gas, and groundwater extraction; dam building; and global warming. Dams and river diversion block the normal flow of sediment, which would otherwise have contributed to the build up of delta land mass. Extraction of gas and groundwater lowers the land. As the deltas sink, they become increasingly vulnerable to coastal flooding. It is estimated that 85% of major deltas have experienced severe flooding recently. The area of land around the delta that is vulnerable to flooding is predicted to increase by 50% in the next 40 years as land continues to sink and global warming causes sea levels to rise.
Deltas were categorized in terms of greatest risk. Three of the 11 highest-risk deltas are in China: the Yellow River delta in the north, the Yangtze River delta near Shanghai, and the Pearl River Delta next to Guangzhou. Also at greatest risk are the Nile (Egypt), the Charo Phraya (Thailand) and the Rhone (France). Seven deltas are somewhat less vulnerable, including the Ganges (Bangladesh), the Irrawaddy (Myanmar), the Mekong (Vietnam) and the Mississippi (US).
The delta of the Chao Phraya (Bangkok) has recently sunk from 2 to 6 inches per year, primarily as a result of groundwater extraction for agriculture. The Po delta (Italy) has subsided 12-feet during the 20th century because of accelerated compaction after methane extraction.
Sea level rise from global warming is another threat. The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted oceans would rise by 2 feet by 2100, but this estimate is considered conservative because it is not based on contributions from Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet melting.
More intense storms along with the removal of natural barriers are also likely to result in more damaging storm surges. The effect of hurricane Katrina was the best example in the US. But other damaging floods have occurred in Asian deltas, such as the Irrawaddy in Burma and the Ganges-Brahmaputra in India and Bangladesh. Similar disasters are likely in the Mekong delta in Vietnam and the Pearl River delta near Hong Kong.
Link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8266500.stm