Surplus of books on oil's decline

By Danila Oder

The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, by Richard Heinberg (Gabriola Island, BC: New Society Publishers, 2003). Available from www.musletter.com. Written for undergraduates as well as the general public, The Party’s Over is the best single read on the coming oil crisis. World oil production will peak between 2006-2015, then slowly decline. However, world demand for oil will continue to grow as countries industrialize and automobile use increases. Heinberg thinks through the consequences and tells us what to expect. He believes that in the U.S., the electrical grids will collapse, the information infrastructure will be lost, and the nation will devolve into regions. This is a persuasive and frightening read. The only flaw is inadequate attention to equipping readers with tools to take action. Fortunately, you can read about solutions in these pages.

Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, by Kenneth S. Deffeyes (Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press, 2001). An oil geologist focuses on the geological reasons why the world is running out of oil. A major source for Heinberg’s book. Deffeyes convincingly refutes the “cornucopian” arguments that we can find more oil if we use new technology, drill deeper, drill someplace new, or speed up exploration. This rapidly written book primarily appeals to those interested in petroleum geology.

Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil, by David Goodstein (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2004). A misleading title aimed at cashing in on a trend. This slim book, written from an engineer’s point of view, is a summary of the oil-depletion problem tacked onto an explanation of the physics of energy sources. The author, a Caltech professor, concludes that concentrated research is needed on many alternative energies, as none will be a panacea. Don’t bother unless this book appears on your Caltech class reading list.

The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World, by Paul Roberts (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 2004). An investigative journalist’s account of how global warming, higher oil prices and shortages will affect international relationships and lead to political unrest.

The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself—and Profit—From the Coming Energy Crisis, by Stephen Leeb and Donna Leeb (New York: Warner Business Books, 2004). A financial advisor and a business writer analyze the present oil crisis and offer investment suggestions. A well-written and thoughtful book marred only by their market fundamentalism. Although they support an Apollo-type alternative energy project based on wind power and clean coal, they live off a financial system that discourages long-term planning and rewards those companies that most rapidly convert ecosystems into dollars. If you accept these contradictions and “invest” (i.e., gamble) in the stock market, this book will be useful.

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