AB 32 Scoping Plan

Our primary focus in 2008 has been working within Sierra Club California for the best-possible Scoping Plan under AB 32, where we developed and submitted detailed comments and spoke for the Sierra Club at public hearings.

AB 32 is California's landmark 2006 law to reduce global warming emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, about 30% from business-as-usual projected for 2020, 15% from today’s levels, with a long-range goal of 80% from 1990 levels by 2050 (chart below; click to enlarge).

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) passed the AB 32 Scoping Plan on 12/11/08 (press release; LA Times).

The largest two sectors of greenhouse gas emissions (below) are transportation — 38% — and electricity generation — 23%.

This timeline below shows CARB's first milestones in 2007; developing the high-level Scoping Plan over the last year; and the upcoming detailed rulemaking through 2011 to implement it.

Following is the overview of how the Scoping Plan expects to reduce emissions.

Recommended Reduction Measures — Counted Towards 2020 Target (MMTCO₂E*)

ESTIMATED REDUCTIONS FROM CAP AND TRADE PROGRAM AND COMPLEMENTARY MEASURES — 146.7

California Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Standards — 31.7
Energy Efficiency — 26.3
Renewables Portfolio Standard (33% by 2020) — 21.3
Low Carbon Fuel Standard — 15
Regional Transportation-Related GHG Targets — 5
Vehicle Efficiency Measures — 4.5
Goods Movement — 3.7
Million Solar Roofs — 2.1
Medium/Heavy Duty Vehicles — 1.4
High Speed Rail — 1.0
Industrial Measures (cap-and-trade sources) — 0.3
Additional Reductions Necessary to Achieve the Cap — 34.4

ESTIMATED REDUCTIONS FROM UNCAPPED SOURCES — 27.3

High Global Warming Potential Gas Measures — 20.2
Sustainable Forests — 5.0
Industrial Measures (non-cap and trade sources) — 1.1
Recycling and Waste (landfill methane capture) — 1.0

TOTAL REDUCTIONS COUNTED TOWARDS 2020 TARGET — 174

*Million Metric Tons of CO₂ Equivalent emissions. Source (PDF), page 2, update to Proposed Scoping Plan (PDF), Table 2, page 17 (PDF page 37). Charts source (PDF).

CARB Chairman Mary Nichols (left, above) and board members Barbara Riordan and Dr. Daniel Sperling at the December 2007 meeting in El Monte that set the 2020 emissions limit at 427 MMTCO₂E.

CARB's senior staff, led by Chuck Shulock (left, below), at a July public workshop during development of the Scoping Plan.

updated 12/14/08

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This page updated 4/11/09

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